Global Battery Production Capacity Must Grow 21 Times To Electrify The Global Vehicle Fleet

By Will Driscoll

  • Market and policy forces may drive a global transition to electric vehicles.
  • Current and planned global battery manufacturing capacity is 313 gigawatt-hours per year.
  • An estimated battery manufacturing capacity of 6600 gigawatt-hours per year would be needed to electrify the global vehicle fleet.
  • That is about 21 times the current capacity.

Vehicle manufacturers are announcing plans for new and improved electric vehicle models on a seemingly daily basis. For passenger vehicles, the appeal is improved performance and lower operating costs; as prices fall, consumer demand will expand. For trucks and city buses, the appeal is lower life cycle costs and, especially for buses, cleaner air.

Nations may favor electric vehicles to reduce oil imports and protect the climate. Indeed, stabilizing the climate will require electrifying the global vehicle fleet and powering vehicles with solar and wind power.

Current and planned global battery manufacturing capacity is 313 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per year

The world’s major battery manufacturers include Panasonic, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, and Chinese newcomer CATL. These and other battery makers have an existing and planned manufacturing capacity of 313 GWh per year, according to Bloomberg.

About 6600 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity would be needed to electrify the global vehicle fleet

This analysis considers heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) trucks, medium commercial vehicle (MCV) trucks, city buses, passenger vehicles, and commercial vehicles made by auto manufacturers.

Because electric vehicles driven many hours per day achieve the greatest operating savings, fleets of trucks and buses are the strongest candidates for electrification, and thus are considered first.

Electric HCV trucks would require 900 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity

Deloitte projects that 1.8 million HCV trucks will be sold annually by 2026, while a Tesla Semi HCV with a range of 500 miles has been estimated to require a 500 kilowatt-hour (kWh) battery. Multiplying the two values yields an estimated 900 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity needed for HCV trucks. (Note that one million kWh equals one GWh.)

Electric MCV trucks would require 180 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity

Deloitte projects that 0.90 million MCV trucks will be sold annually by 2026, while Volvo plans an electric MCV with a 200 kWh battery. Multiplying the two values shows that about 180 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity would be needed for MCV trucks.

Electric city buses would require 50 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity

Bloomberg projects that 0.18 million city buses will be sold annually by 2025, while Proterra offers an average 275 kWh battery pack size for its city buses. Multiplying the two values shows that about 50 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity would be needed for city buses.

Passenger vehicles would require 3550 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity

An automaker’s association estimates that 71 million passenger vehicles were sold in 2017, while the standard Tesla Model 3 will have a 50 kWh battery pack. Multiplying the two values shows that an estimated 3550 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity would be needed for passenger vehicles.

Commercial vehicles made by auto manufacturers would require 1950 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity

An automaker’s association estimates that 26 million commercial vehicles were sold by automakers in 2017. This analysis assumes that on average they would have a battery capacity 50 percent larger than that for a passenger vehicle, or 75 kWh. Multiplying the two values shows that about 1950 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity would be needed for commercial vehicles.

Summing the capacity needed across the five vehicle types = 6600 GWh needed

Summing across all vehicle types shows that an estimated 6600 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity would be needed to electrify the global vehicle fleet.

Dividing 6600 by 313 (which is the current plus planned battery manufacturing capacity) shows that capacity must grow about 21 times to meet that target.